War and Chance
War and Chance
Assessing Uncertainty in International Politics
Friedman, Jeffrey A.
Oxford University Press Inc
10/2021
242
Mole
Inglês
9780197619131
15 a 20 dias
356
Introduction: "One of the Things You Learn as President Is That You're
Always Dealing with Probabilities"
Chapter 1: Pathologies of Probability Assessment
Chapter 2: Subjective Probability and International Politics
Chapter 3: The Value of Precision in Probability Assessment
Chapter 4: Dispelling Illusions of Rigor
Chapter 5: The Politics of Uncertainty and Blame
Chapter 6: Analysis and Decision
Chapter 7: Practical Implications and Directions for Further Research
Appendix
Introduction: "One of the Things You Learn as President Is That You're
Always Dealing with Probabilities"
Chapter 1: Pathologies of Probability Assessment
Chapter 2: Subjective Probability and International Politics
Chapter 3: The Value of Precision in Probability Assessment
Chapter 4: Dispelling Illusions of Rigor
Chapter 5: The Politics of Uncertainty and Blame
Chapter 6: Analysis and Decision
Chapter 7: Practical Implications and Directions for Further Research
Appendix